• Home
  • About
  • Blog
  • Newsletter
  • @swellcast
  • Cyclone Narelle: What Happened to the North Swell?

    Despite all the anticipation and buzz watching this cyclone track down the coast over the past few days, no north swell arrived. Why not?

    Probably a combination of factors. Here’s one take on it.

    Take a look at the full track of cyclone Bianca (below), responsible for one of the most memorable north swells in recent memory. It’s very similar to the track of cyclone Iggy, which also gave us a great north swell. Both of these cyclones moved out in to the Indian Ocean in a south-westerly direction, before turning back and moving toward the south-west of WA. That south-easterly movement created a decent length of fetch, covering enough ocean and time more less directly toward us.

    Cyclone Bianca Track 2011

    By comparison, cyclone Narelle tracked more or less parallel with the coast (below), with no opportunity for substantial fetch toward the coast until it was well south of -30, and had weakened significantly. Any small north swell that did show itself was probably trumped by the medium sized SW swell at 14s.

    Cyclone Narelle Forecast Track

    Unfortunately this one just didn’t happen. There were still a few fun waves around though.

    Until next time.

    Posted by swellcast on 16th January 2013 / No comments

  • Cyclone Narelle

    Another cyclone has formed off the North West coast. Cyclone Narelle was upgraded to category 5 today, and is forecast to move roughly parallel with the coast between Exmouth and Shark Bay over the next couple of days. This one also has the potential to follow a track similar to that of Iggy.

    Cyclone Narelle Forecast Track

    Image sources: Bureau of Meteorology

    Posted by swellcast on 12th January 2013 / No comments

  • Another North Swell?

    Remember that crazy northerly swell earlier this year? The one that turned the Western Australian coast back to front?

    This is Cyclone Iggy, between January 27th and February 1st, 2012. Move forward a few days, and the whole south west coast of Western Australia was hardly recognisable. About the same time Perth was in a WNW air stream, further south the wind was offshore, and strange right hand quasi-point breaks were coming to life. In a state short of right handers, this was a short lived natural footer’s dream.

    Now check the forecast path for this tropical low, between Thursday 27th and Sunday 30th December 2012.

    Early days, but there is some potential for similarity. The forecast has it moving south, tracking parallel to the coast and/or slightly out to sea, and intensifying. Will be interesting to watch this over the weekend and see what’s going on come Monday, see if it starts to track anything like the full Iggy track, below.

    Update 29th December 2012 6pm: Tropical low now upgraded to Tropical Cyclone Mitchell, forecast track moving slightly more south south west, and more similar to Iggy’s track in the same region.

    Update 30th December 2012 6pm: Tropical Cyclone Mitchell now downgraded to tropical low. Significant SW swell expected later in the week, building Thursday night and Friday morning.

    Image sources: Bureau of Meteorology, Wikipedia

    Posted by swellcast on 28th December 2012 / No comments

  • sunday_fun

    Fun in the Weekend Sun

    Sunday just gone was a cracker. 2 metres of swell and ESE until mid-late morning. Plenty of reef breaks to choose from down south, including this gem.

    17th December 2012 / No comments

  • western-australia

    Clean Autumn Lines

    Western Australia, circa March 2009. This is probably about 2 metres of south west swell on a fully exposed stretch of coast near Margaret River.

    6th December 2012 / No comments

  • swellcast_stickers

    Sticker Giveaway!!

    These arrived in the post last week. Link to swellcast.com.au in a tweet and we’ll send you a couple for your trouble! Here’s a handy link for that. Currently only shipping within Australia, limited to first 50.

    Posted by swellcast on 30th November 2012 / No comments

  • Victoria

    Working on new forecast pages for Cape Otway, Cape Woolamai and Lakes Entrance. Stay tuned!

    Posted by swellcast on 13th November 2012 / No comments

  • A brief look at the data behind swellcast

    At the time of writing all swellcast data comes from the Wave Watch III program, a pretty intense physical and mathematical modelling system run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) agency in the US. Think smart dudes in white lab coats with degrees in oceanography, salty hair, and a nasal drip from the morning surf.

    This model is serious stuff, taking into consideration refraction, water depth, tides and currents etc. NOAA run the model and publish fresh data every six hours, every day. The data is published in gridded binary format, or GRIB, i.e. data corresponding to grid points across the planet. Each grid point has forecast data for each three hourly interval out to 180 hours from the model run time. This makes for one large data set!

    Each location published on swellcast has at least one grid point nearby. But here’s the thing – some of these locations are closer to a grid point than others, resulting in different levels of accuracy, particularly in relation to wind.

    A great example of this is Perth, Western Australia, where the nearest grid point is significantly offshore. In winter, between cold fronts, inshore land breezes sometimes blow easterly for a brief period in the morning. This kind of local wind event flies under the radar of the NOAA model, but not those with the local knowledge.

    Thankfully these quirks are the exception to the rule, and overall the raw data provides a very reliable indication of what to expect over the coming week.

    We’re planning a detailed series of posts on the process of fetching and presenting this data in the near future.

    Posted by swellcast on 25th October 2012 / No comments

  • We Are all Radioactive

    Surfers rebuilding northern Japan, or part thereof. Documentaries about the community spirit in tsunami ravaged Japan. Check it out - http://weareallradioactive.com/

    23rd June 2012 / No comments

  • Welcome to the Swellca.st Desk!

    We’ve launched a blog to share our experiences building swellca.st.

    Aside from inconsequential surf related news and banter, we’ll be talking about how the site was built, new locations and features we’ve got coming, and the nuances of surf forecasting.

    Your comments, suggestions and input are welcome and appreciated!

    Posted by swellcast on 22nd June 2012 / 2 comments

  • Swellcast Blog

    Posts about the swellcast journey, surf related banter, and surf forecasting in general.

  • Tags

    • Community
    • Cyclone
    • Data
    • Japan
    • Links
    • Margaret River
    • Perth
    • Surf Forecasting
    • Surfing
    • Swell
    • Swellcast
    • Uncategorized
    • Victoria
    • Western Australia
  • Twitter

    "Surfline break down the storm behind that s. pacific swell. '1 million sq. m of wind 30kts or more' http://t.co/m5eZW5LmLE"
    15 hours ago
    "So Monday was decidedly pumping in and around #perth, thanks to a WSW swell direction. More coming tomorrow/Friday! http://t.co/IUz0qjUlTE"
    yesterday
    "The new swellcast app is coming for #perth and other west oz locations. @tweetperth Check out a preview here: http://t.co/M6zXpxLZkM"
    yesterday
    follow @swellcast on twitter

© 2012 Swellcast. Surf reports and forecasts Australia. All Rights Reserved. Disclaimer